Congratulations to Fred Heffner for winning this year’s bowl pool! Fred clinched the victory with 22 points after Alabama’s dominating win last night.
Francis Martin claimed 2nd place with 21 points and the closest tiebreaker.
Will Wu will get his money back for finishing last.
Click below to see the final standings.
Thanks to everyone for playing!
Given the success and acclaim mathematics guru Nate Silver received during election season for his statistical analysis of the election, I’ve been asked to add a blog post that lays out the odds of each entry winning the pool. Here goes nothing:
Alabama is essentially a 3-to-1 favorite in tonight’s National Championship game per most prognosticators, which means there is about a 75% chance of Alabama winning. Since Fred Heffner wins the pool if Alabama wins, we can say his odds of winning the pool are about 75%. There are three other entries that have a chance to win the pool if Notre Dame wins, with the results coming down to closest tiebreaker score. The over-under for the game tonight is 38.5, which means there is about a 50% chance that 38 points or less will be scored, and about a 50% chance that 39 or more points will be scored. Soni Patangay has the lowest tiebreaker guess with 43. In fact, she will win if the total score is less than 50 points. Looking at the games that involved Alabama and Notre Dame this season, about 70% of their games had less than 50 points scored. So, Soni’s odds of winning the pool are about 17.5% (25% for a ND win times 70% for a score under 50). Rick Grubb would need a score between 50 and 60 to win the pool. This point total occurred in about 24% of the games that involved Alabama and Notre Dame this season. So, Rick’s odds of winning the pool are about 6% (25% for a ND win times 24% for a score between 50 and 60). Finally, Raj Basavaraju needs a score over 60. There is only about a 6% chance of the total score being over 60. This puts Raj’s odds to win the pool at 1.5% (25% times 6%). Of course, this is still a lot higher than everyone else (including me) at 0%.
As for the battle for last place, Will Wu needs an Alabama win or a Notre Dame win with more than 38 points. So, Will’s odds of claiming last place are about 87.5%. Andrew Lessner has a 12.5% chance of claiming last place.
Another lead change in the pool, as Fred Heffner has taken the outright lead with 20 points following Oregon’s victory in the Fiesta Bowl. Only one game remains – Monday night’s National Championship Game. Six entries trail by just one point, and these entries are still in the running for 1st or 2nd place. Here are the possible scenarios:
If Alabama wins, Fred Heffner wins the pool. Drew Harclerode, Lori Schwartz, and Francis Martin would tie for 2nd place, and the runner-up would be the entry with the closest tiebreaker.
If Notre Dame wins, there will be a three-way tie for first place between Soni Patangay, Rick Grubb, and Raj Basavaraju. The winner would be the entry with the closest tiebreaker score. Runner-up would go to the next closest tiebreaker score.
See below for the latest spreadsheet.
Completed Games:
1/3 – Fiesta Bowl – (2 point game)
Oregon 35, Kansas State 17
Monday’s Game:
8:30pm – BCS National Championship – ESPN (2 point game)
Alabama vs. Notre Dame
Louisville’s surprising upset win in the Sugar Bowl last night has shaken up the standings again. After a cold stretch, Drew Harclerode has reclaimed a share of the lead with 19 points out of 26. Joining Drew atop the standings is Raj Basavaraju, who is the only entry to have all 3 BCS games correct (which is remarkable, considering Raj was the only entry to have all 5 BCS games wrong last year, on his way to a last place finish). Drew and Raj are in the driver’s seat, but both have selected underdog Kansas State in tonight’s Fiesta Bowl, which opens the door for folks who picked Oregon. See below for the latest results.
Completed Games:
1/2 – Sugar Bowl – (2 point game)
Louisville 33, Florida 23
Tonight’s Game:
8:30pm – Fiesta Bowl – ESPN (2 point game)
Oregon vs. Kansas State
After two weeks of unpredictable results, things finally settled down on New Year’s Day, with all 6 favorites winning their games. Fred Heffner and George Demers have risen to the top of the standings with 18 points each (out of 24 possible), but a lot of entries are right on their heels. Three games remain, including the Sugar Bowl tonight. See the link below for the latest results and standings.
Completed Games:
1/1 – Gator Bowl
Northwestern 34, Mississippi State 20
1/1 – Heart of Dallas Bowl
Oklahoma State 58, Purdue 14
1/1- Outback Bowl
South Carolina 33, Michigan 28
1/1 – Capital One Bowl
Georgia 45, Nebraska 31
1/1 – Rose Bowl (2 point game)
Stanford 20, Wisconsin 14
1/1 – Orange Bowl (2 point game)
Florida State 31, Northern Illinois 10
Tonight’s Game:
8:30pm – Sugar Bowl – ESPN (2 point game)
Florida vs. Louisville
After correctly picking 3 of 4 games yesterday, including big upsets by Georgia Tech and Clemson, Drew Harclerode continues to lead the Bowl Pool with 14 of 16 correct. A lot of points are on the table today, as there are 6 games – including two BCS games, which are worth 2 points each. So today’s results will separate the contenders from the pretenders. To put things in perspective how difficult the picks have been this year, the average score is only 8.1 out of 16 – barely over half correct. Click below to see the latest results.
Completed Games:
12/31 – Music City Bowl
Vanderbilt 38, NC State 24
12/31 – Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech 21, USC 7
12/31 – Liberty Bowl
Tulsa 31, Iowa State 17
12/31 – Chick Fil-a Bowl
Clemson 25, LSU 24
New Year’s Day Games:
12pm – Gator Bowl – ESPN2
Northwestern vs. Mississippi State
12pm – Heart of Dallas Bowl – ESPNU
Oklahoma State vs. Purdue
1pm – Outback Bowl – ESPN
South Carolina vs. Michigan
1pm – Capital One Bowl – ABC
Georgia vs. Nebraska
5pm – Rose Bowl – ESPN (2 point game)
Stanford vs. Wisconsin
8:30pm – Orange Bowl – ESPN (2 point game)
Florida State vs. Northern Illinois