Given the success and acclaim mathematics guru Nate Silver received during election season for his statistical analysis of the election, I’ve been asked to add a blog post that lays out the odds of each entry winning the pool. Here goes nothing:

Alabama is essentially a 3-to-1 favorite in tonight’s National Championship game per most prognosticators, which means there is about a 75% chance of Alabama winning. Since Fred Heffner wins the pool if Alabama wins, we can say his odds of winning the pool are about 75%. There are three other entries that have a chance to win the pool if Notre Dame wins, with the results coming down to closest tiebreaker score. The over-under for the game tonight is 38.5, which means there is about a 50% chance that 38 points or less will be scored, and about a 50% chance that 39 or more points will be scored. Soni Patangay has the lowest tiebreaker guess with 43. In fact, she will win if the total score is less than 50 points. Looking at the games that involved Alabama and Notre Dame this season, about 70% of their games had less than 50 points scored. So, Soni’s odds of winning the pool are about 17.5% (25% for a ND win times 70% for a score under 50). Rick Grubb would need a score between 50 and 60 to win the pool. This point total occurred in about 24% of the games that involved Alabama and Notre Dame this season. So, Rick’s odds of winning the pool are about 6% (25% for a ND win times 24% for a score between 50 and 60). Finally, Raj Basavaraju needs a score over 60. There is only about a 6% chance of the total score being over 60. This puts Raj’s odds to win the pool at 1.5% (25% times 6%). Of course, this is still a lot higher than everyone else (including me) at 0%.

As for the battle for last place, Will Wu needs an Alabama win or a Notre Dame win with more than 38 points. So, Will’s odds of claiming last place are about 87.5%. Andrew Lessner has a 12.5% chance of claiming last place.